Speculation is heating up in crypto circles as betting markets Polymarket surged on the possibility that former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF) could receive a presidential pardon from Donald Trump.
Following Trump’s surprise pardon of Binance founder Changpeng “CZ” Zhao, odds on prediction platform Polymarket for an SBF pardon skyrocketed from 5.6% to over 12% within 12 hours, with total wagers surpassing $66,339 in Volume.
Polymarket Bets on SBF Pardon Double After Trump’s CZ Clemency
A Polymarket market tracking whether Bankman-Fried will be released from custody in 2025 has seen heightened activity, spiking from 4.3% to 15% before stabilizing around 12%. The renewed interest reflects growing curiosity over whether Trump’s pro-crypto stance could extend to other high-profile figures in the industry.
Bankman-Fried, currently serving a 25-year prison sentence for fraud and conspiracy, is appealing his conviction, but analysts suggest no ruling is likely before the end of the year. That makes a presidential pardon his only realistic path to early release.
Trump’s CZ Pardon Fuels Comparisons, and Controversy
The surge in betting odds came shortly after Trump pardoned CZ, who had served four months for Anti-Money Laundering violations. Trump claimed Zhao was “persecuted by the Biden administration” and that his actions were “not even a crime.”
Crypto analysts were quick to compare CZ’s relatively minor compliance breaches to Bankman-Fried’s sweeping fraud case, which involved misappropriating billions in customer deposits. “CZ’s wrongdoing was compliance-related and nowhere near the scale of SBF’s,” said crypto lawyer Sasha Hodder.
Similarly, attorney Jake Chervinsky said he would be “truly shocked” if Trump granted Bankman-Fried clemency, citing his role as a “Democratic mega-donor” and the political optics surrounding FTX’s collapse.
Political Ties Could Make or Break SBF’s Pardon Hopes
Reports suggest that SBF and his family are quietly lobbying for leniency, with his parents reaching out to figures close to Trump. He has also made appearances on conservative media platforms, attempting to recast himself as a victim of political bias.
However, unlike CZ, who has close ties to Trump’s circle through the World Liberty Financial crypto venture, Bankman-Fried lacks direct political connections. Experts believe that makes his chances of a pardon slim despite rising Polymarket odds.
Nonetheless, the renewed speculation shows how Trump’s pro-crypto gestures are molding the narrative around justice and power in digital finance.
Cover image from ChatGPT, ETHUSD chart from Tradingview
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