Gemini Space Station (NASDAQ: GEMI), the crypto exchange run by billionaire twins Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss, wants to jump into prediction markets, joining a growing crowd of financial firms trying to cash in on the booming business of betting on elections, sports and other real-world events.
The company has filed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to operate its own derivatives exchange and according to Bloomberg it wants to launch products quickly. Gemini officials have talked internally about using the exchange to offer prediction contracts, though the CFTC application remains under review months later.
The exchange's timing faces hurdles. Getting CFTC approval for a new derivatives marketplace typically takes months or longer, and the recent government shutdown could push things back further. Other companies have sidestepped the wait by teaming up with platforms that already hold the necessary licenses. Robinhood, for instance, lets customers trade event contracts from Kalshi.
News: Crypto firm Gemini Space Station $GEMI is planning to soon launch prediction contracts trading, an increasingly crowded field. With @olgakharif @antoniabmassa @nicola_m_white: pic.twitter.com/wPE4vPddCs
— Lydia Beyoud (@ElleBeyoud) November 4, 2025
Trading Volumes Surge Past $1 Billion Weekly
Gemini would compete directly with Kalshi, which already operates as a CFTC-registered exchange, and Polymarket, which plans to reopen to U.S. customers after operating offshore. Both platforms have seen trading explode in recent weeks, with Kalshi hitting $1.2 billion in weekly volume between late October and early November, topping its previous record of just over $1 billion the week before. Polymarket has also crossed the billion-dollar weekly mark.
Bigger players are circling too. Intercontinental Exchange, which owns the New York Stock Exchange, put $2 billion into Polymarket at a $9 billion valuation. CME Group and Coinbase Global have announced plans to offer event contracts. MetaMask, DraftKings and Sam Altman's World have all added prediction market features in recent months.
Before going public in September, Gemini said in securities filings it planned to launch event contracts covering economic data, financial markets, politics and sports. The company raised $433 million in its IPO at a $4.4 billion valuation, but shares have dropped 40% since then. Gemini still loses money and handles only a small slice of U.S. crypto trading, according to its IPO documents. The company reports earnings for the first time as a public entity on November 10.
Regulators Still Working Out the Rules
A Needham analyst wrote recently that prediction markets present an appealing way for Gemini to diversify beyond crypto. But the regulatory picture remains murky. While the CFTC has let Kalshi expand into new markets, state gaming regulators who traditionally oversee sports betting have challenged the federal agency's authority in court.
The legal fights haven't slowed the industry's momentum. Kalshi recently raised $300 million and now operates in 140 countries. Trading activity keeps climbing as more platforms launch and mainstream financial firms pile in, betting that Americans want a regulated way to wager on everything from election outcomes to economic reports.
This article was written by Damian Chmiel at www.financemagnates.com.
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